The S&P 500 correction

By Colin Twiggs

November 16th, 2012 9:00 p.m. ET (1:00 p:m AET)

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The S&P 500 correction continues despite the index finding short-term support at 1350. A rally would test the descending trendline around 1400 but a close below 1350 would signal another down-swing. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate a test of primary support at 1275 (the index tends to move in increments of 25).

The Gold-Euro-Dollar conundrum Part II

Last week we discussed conflicting signals from the euro and US dollar. The Dollar Index and the euro are normally plotted inversely to each other. I have reversed this on the chart below. As expected, with the euro the largest component (57.6 percent) of the dollar index weighted basket of currencies, there is a strong correlation. Divergences between the two seldom last as traders "arbitrage" the differences.

The rising Dollar Index is testing resistance at 81.50. Respect of resistance would threaten a head-and-shoulders reversal — with a target of 74* — following a breakout below primary support at 78.50. Falling 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, already suggests a primary down-trend. But recovery above 81.50/82.00 would negate this, indicating another primary advance.

* Target calculation: 79 - ( 84 - 79 ) = 74

Spot gold (daily chart) is testing short-term support at $1700 per ounce. Respect of support would reinforce the earlier trendline break, suggesting another test of $1800. But a stronger dollar and failure of support at $1675 would indicate a more severe correction.

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 - 1700 ) = 1900

The DJ-UBS Commodity Index (weekly chart) continues to test support at 140. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a primary up-trend. Recovery above 152 would confirm. A stronger dollar and breach of 140, however, would test primary support at 126.

Nymex WTI Light Crude and ICE Brent Crude are both headed for a test of primary support: WTI at $76/$78 per barrel and Brent Crude at $90. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend.

More....

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Richard Fisher | Politicians need to get their act together [video]

Obama's "Fairness" Tax is Political, Not Fiscal

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Back to Basics: A Better Alternative to Basel Capital Rules | Thomas M. Hoenig

Fed monetary policy

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Stopping the Runaway Train: The Case for Privatizing Amtrak | Randal O'Toole | Cato Institute

Of course, in nominal terms a dollar is always worth a dollar. But in real terms, the value or purchasing power of a dollar falls in half each time the cost of living doubles. During the period since the United States left the gold standard in 1933, the price level has gone up nearly 18 fold; a dollar in 2012 has less purchasing power than 6 cents in 1933. That sort of currency depreciation is almost impossible under a gold standard regime. Indeed, the cost of living in 1933 was not much different from what it was in the late 1700s. This is the most powerful argument in favor of the gold standard.

~ Scott Sumner: The Case For Nominal GDP Targeting